Obama's popularity leapt after McCain hailed the health of the economy in 2008, and Romney's campaign has, predictably and fairly, launched an ad over Obama's stupid remark that "the private sector is doing fine." If the Romney campaign had failed to capitalize on it you'd have to wonder on the relative stupidity.
Aside from the blunder, Obama has facts on his side, what with the CBO having pointed out that economists feel the stimulus helped the economy. He just has to get that message heard.
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(DISCLOSURE: I work for Abt SRBI. My company does polling. My opinions should not be construed as representing those of my employer.)