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Copyright © 2009 Frank Lynch.

 

 

Me: Frank Lynch

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Sunday, November 29, 2009

So: Bush let the tail wag the dog? The UK, you might have heard, is investigating the roll-out of the Iraq invasion and its role in it. Great Britain, of course, was a member of the "Coalition of the Willing," the fig leaf devised by Bush, Rummy (forget about "old" Europe!), Cheney, Rice, Blair, and so on, to act as if the failure to obtain UN approval was insignificant. Britain's UN Ambassador favored giving Iraq more time, until October of 2003 (we ultimately invaded in the prior March). Why, when asked, did he say he couldn't persuade others to wait?

He said the French in March were proposing a three- to four-month ultimatum to Baghdad, and the Saudis and other Arab governments were interested in working to get Saddam Hussein to go into exile.

But, he said, "the soldiers probably wanted to get on with it," and the United States "did not want to start a military operation in the summer months."

Asked whether he thought "the military tail was wagging the diplomatic dog," Greenstock answered, "Yes, of course."

I recalled Kenneth Pollack having made a similar argument about the timing at Talking Points Memo at the time... that it isn't easy to start the war machinery and put it in place and then turn it around, so the momentum suggests it's more efficient to go ahead and pull the trigger the first time all the machinery is in place than to come back and do it again. But of course "efficiency" shouldn't be the criterion here, and its slim weight as a guiding principle has been borne out by subsequent events.

As a sad testament to Pollack's superior thinking, take a look at this interview with Pollack in January, 2003:

People are constantly saying ... they use this silly courtroom analogy of innocent till proven guilty. And of course it is silly because this is not an analogous situation. This isn't a courtroom. There's no court of law here.

But you can actually turn that around and say 'Look, if this were Columbo or Perry Mason they would have an incredibly damning case to make. Imagine Saddam Hussein on the witness stand. And you put it to him exactly the way the president did last night. 'Saddam Hussein, you have admitted that you manufactured VX. We also have receipts that show that you purchased the following chemicals which have very limited uses, one of which is making VX. Where are those chemicals?'

The UN resolutions required that [he] account for those chemicals and for twelve years Saddam has just been looking us in the eye and saying 'I don't know what you're talking about. I refuse to answer the question.' Imagine what that would look like if this were Law and Order and if this were Jack McCoy asking that question again and again. And after each presentation of the evidence and question to Saddam, 'What have you done with those materials.' And the Iraqi response is 'We're not answering that question.' That's a pretty damning indictment.

If you see the drift, Pollack wanted TV justice systems on an issue as important as going to war: how naive! In addition of course, to the opportunity to exude the triumphalism of the TV prosecutor.

Link | | | 11:35 AM | Home
 

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Marco Rubio fears running against this guy.

Link | | | 11:05 PM | Home


Make mine a camel burger. Camels were introduced to Australia's outback in the 19th century, and seemed like a natural fit for transportation in a world that had yet to fully appreciate the concept of unintended consequences (yeah, as if we do yet). Well, it's certainly a natural fit for the feral camels, whose population grows by about 80,000 a year, doubling every nine. (The rule of thumb of 72 makes that about 8% growth.)

And a tiny outback town called Docker River is under seige. The camels in the desert are

devastating fragile desert ecosystems, scar[c]e water supplies, rare plants and animals, Aboriginal cultural resources, remote communities and pastoral stations.

"Because camels are cautious creatures and beautifully camouflaged, and because these areas are sparsely settled, most people are simply unaware of the sheer numbers of these introduced pests, or the extent of the damage they're causing," said Glenn Edwards, of the NT Department and Natural Resources and Environment.

Four years ago there was discussion of exporting camel meat, but that wasn't mentioned in the more recent news article. Still, I like buffalo, ostrich... never had horse or that Louisiana rodent whose name I can never remember (another invasive imported species), but I'd certainly give it a try. All in the name of helping Australia, of course.

(HT to Boing Boing.) (Lastly, just in case, the headline here is drawn from an old cigarette advertising slogan, so perhaps I should remind you that the Surgeon General has concluded that cigarette smoking is hazardous to your health.)

UPDATE: The Louisana rodent is the Nutria, as Joel reminds in the comments. The State of Louisiana has a small web site devoted to the pest.

Link | | | 9:13 AM | Home
 

Friday, November 27, 2009

Bloomberg's deep pockets. He spent $102 million of his own money getting reelected this past November. And still only won by 5% over a candidate who drew little support from Obama or other Democrats.

Somebody needs a better barometer for voter anger — this election could have gone to the Democrat.

Link | | | 6:33 PM | Home


The "true Republican" test gets weirder. Responding to questions as to whether or not Reagan would have passed his test for true Republicans, James Bopp weaves and dodges. Applying his 2010 yardstick to Reagan is silly, just because "everyone knows" "Ronald Reagan was the most conservative President in the last 100 years." So there.

Here's the wild part: if they were to have had a similar test in 1980, the questions would have been different, appropriate for the issues of the day. And the list for 2012 might be different from the list for 2010, or 2014... It's going to be based on the context of the day.

Which means it has little or nothing to do with principles, which do not change. Calvinball, however, does.

Link | | | 11:50 AM | Home
 

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Defending the filibuster. Timothy Noah (Slate) and Byron York (Washington Examiner) discuss the value of filibusters in a bloggingheads video:

Sadly, while Noah mentions the huge difference in the frequency of filibusters now vs. in the 1960's, York completely bypasses that issue, instead quoting Fred Thompson's observation that filibusters, once bad, are now "good." I can see Thompson's point, and I can see why it appeals to York, but there are a lot of things which are fundamentally "good" but lose their "goodness" when used immoderately. Green beans are also good, but see how much you like them if you eat them 21 meals a week, 52 weeks a year.

The Republicans are in a position now where they have so little to offer the country that the filibuster is about all they can do, and so they do it; over, and over, and over. They have become the whiny, crying kid at the next table in the restaurant who won't shut up, won't get with the program, and whose parents won't hasten their meals.

If the Republicans played the filibuster as rarely as the Democrats did under Bush, maybe their filibuster over healthcare would be seen as a serious point. Problematically, it makes them look as if they are simply obstructionist. (Except when it comes to special allowances for all states whose names begin with the letter "U.")

Link | | | 12:07 PM | Home


The Republican Party is better off without RINO's like Reagan. A conservative member of the RNC is proposing a "purity" test for candidates; they have to adhere to eight of ten principles in order to get party funding.

Over at the Nation, John Nichols scores Reagan on them, and Reagan flunks. For all ten, there's something in Reagan's record which would have riled the wing nuts. Reagan. RINO. Has a ring to it, doesn't it?

Link | | | 8:45 AM | Home
 

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

As God is my witness. So Obama has bought into a grand design for success in Afghanistan.

Good luck with that.

Link | | | 11:54 PM | Home
 

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Obama to escalate in Afghanistan. Despite the best efforts of Bill Moyers to draw parallels between what he sees in Afghanistan and what he saw in Vietnam during his tenure in the LBJ White House, despite all sorts of questions as to whether or not Afghanistan can be propped up, Obama is heading towards sending in more troops, saying it's his "intention to finish the job".

So I pulled out this map, and there's this paved road to hell...

In fairness, I will wait to hear his strategy, but I will bring my skepticism to the party, as the party deserves it. Never show up empty handed, I always heard.

In the meantime, if OBL is hidden in some dark cave, maybe there's a nice dark cave for the thoughts of Dick Cheney?

On Monday, former Vice President Dick Cheney said that Obama has put troops in danger by dragging out the decision on whether to send more troops, first through more than 20 hours of meetings leading up to a ninth and final session on Monday night, and then by putting off announcing the decision until after Thanksgiving.

"The delay is not cost-free," Cheney told a conservative radio talk show host. "Every day that goes by raises doubts in the minds of our friends in the region what you're going to do, raises doubts in the minds of the troops."

Hey, Dick, very curious that you never cared that much about it when we pulled troops out of Afghanistan to go fight a country that never attacked us, and gave AQ a brand new recruiting tool in the process. Heckuva job, Dick.

Link | | | 8:47 PM | Home


b-b-b-but Obama returned the bust of Churchill! Ah, yes, our special relationship with Great Britain, and how Obama tore it all to shreds. Great Britain is starting an investigation into its involvement into the Iraq War, which happened under Obama and Blair, of course. I suggest you read about how much the British troops thought Americans were cognizant of the special relationship. You may have to scroll down to find it, but it would be better to read the thing.

Link | | | 7:17 AM | Home
 

Monday, November 23, 2009

The joys of local news. An anchor on Chicago's Fox affiliate used a pie chart instead of a bar chart, and the pie summed to 193%... It's all logical of course, when Republican voters don't have to choose.

This error is so fundamental, I doubt that Tufte even covers it.

Link | | | 7:54 PM | Home


To this day I can still remember where I was yesterday.

Link | | | 6:53 PM | Home
 

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Here's how little John Hindraker knows. John Hindraker is one of the brainiacs at Powerline, and apparently he really thought tonight's vote on health care reform was a cloture vote (to overcome a filibuster), and not merely a vote to allow debate.

Mary Landrieu announced today that she will vote for cloture...

UPDATE: Well, I suppose we shouldn't jump the gun. The Democrats will need 60 votes one more time, as today's vote just kicked off debate.

Before he updated his post, I know I emailed him to alert him to his foolishness. Presumably others did, too. But it's staggering that anyone wuold be swayed by someone who doesn't understand the nuts and bolts of the process, or doesn't bother to learn them, when it's an issue as important as this. This morning I wasn't so sure about the process, but I knew better than to launch the old blogging machine before I did.

And yes, even though he's shown he's a fool, he has to be watched. Sorry.

UPDATE: Joel points out (in the comments) that last night's vote was actually a cloture vote - - one to end a filibuster against discussing the bill. He's correct. (Anyone who was listening to the Republicans yesterday would have thought they were debating the merits of the bill, but that's aside the point.) As for Hinderaker, what launched me was his equating the vote with proceeding to vote on the bill. I didn't include his full quote: "Mary Landrieu announced today that she will vote for cloture on the Democrats' government medicine bill tonight. The Democrats now have 60 votes and will be able to pass their version of government medicine." It also reads as if he forgot Senator Lincoln was a potential hold out.

Link | | | 11:40 PM | Home


In praise of Jon Stewart. From Brian Williams, who writes that he has become "indispensable." And no mention of how Stewart basically killed Crossfire in one appearance.

Link | | | 8:45 AM | Home


Shall we start with some Goldberg Variations? For mandocello and mandolin.

If you're intrigued by the mandocello, Gerald Trimble also plays it, but more as the featured instrument than as the left hand.

Link | | | 8:16 AM | Home
 

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