Copyright © 2009 Frank Lynch.
Copyright © 2009 Frank Lynch.
Me: Frank Lynch Home These are my mundane daily ramblings.
Email:
|
Some insurance companies just hate their risk pools. In Florida, the Guardian sought to rid itself of Ian Pearl, because he was costing them too much. Now his case is inspiring two New York legislators to force insurance companies to seek government approval before shedding these clients. Too often we assume that insurance companies hire actuaries and know the risks involved before they throw the dice. But it's not until we hear about cases like Pearl's that many of us realize that insurance companies are only willing to insure so much, and walking away from the table has always been part of their plan. 
It must be because they are so left wing and they don't "get" America. Thr circulation of the New York Post has fallen about 30% in two and a half years. I bet there are a lot of newspaper execs who regret letting the genie out of the bottle, and I can say I warned them. But did they listen? Nooooo. Eyeballs!! We're awash with eyeballs, so who cares!? Of course, the Post isn't the only Murdoch publication that isn't doing well; we'll just never know how bad it really is because it's just one piece of a very big portfolio. November 9. November 9. Sorry, I get childish sometimes. A real post is coming.
And then that GROWN-UP had to show up. You'll know what I mean. For you lefties. I mean... Come on. Isn't it nice to have a President who "dithers"? Say what you will about his not using the bully pulpit to push the health care reform we really want, the fact that he's said we shouldn't rush to conclusions about the motives of the alleged Fort Hood killer is refreshing. This is what a steady hand at the tiller looks like, my friend Senator McCain: no snap judgments about whether Russia invaded Georgia or the reverse, no Chicken Little suggestions that debates need to be cancelled. Of course, the reactions on the right are another thing: the same Wild Rice Harvesters who condemned Obama for saying the Cambridge police "acted stupidly" are now condemning him for not drawing conclusions. Their lesson, of course, is that they are all-seeing: draw their conclusions, or else. Oh, and by the way, can you lead us into another stupid war at the same time? Kewl: we behave foolishly when we blog, and think you should do the same when American lives are at stake. Foolhardiness confirmed. In another example of how you shouldn't look to polling data to confirm your own preconceived notions, Joel's favorite blogger writes that the truth has leaked out about health care reform, citing a 72% polling figure from Rasmussen. Of course, 70% of Americans also thought Iraq was behind 9/11, and look The Rasmussen question was whether the plans could lead employers to shift their own plans to government plans. Of course a pollster isn't likely to ask every variation of a question, but Rasmussen's version uses a vague "many" throughout:
How many is many, and is it a numeric concept or a percentage? Open to speculation of course. What's not open to speculation is why John Hinderaker is so thrilled to trumpet a polling result when there aren't facts. If Rasmussen produces a poll of HR managers it would mean a lot more. DISCLOSURE: I work at Abt SRBI, and we do public policy polling. My opinions should not be construed as being representative of my employer.
Anything you can do, I can do worse. So the Republicans, who don't have a plan ("do too!") came out with, well, not so much of a plan, but kind of a direction and set of ideas... The ingredients of a plan. Kind of like, cookies are made with flour, brown suggar, butter, baking soda, and eggs. And they go in an oven. But the CBO scored it anyway. And Ezra Klein summarizes it: no genuine progress in decreasing the number of people without insurance, and it saves less money than the Democrats' plan. Seems to me that if the GOP wants to pursue fiscal responsibility, they need to put some action behind it. Otherwise Big Daddy Healthcare is going to take us all to the poor house, and there won't be any money left for us to buy anything from their elites.
The Right Wing and "warning track home runs." A home run ball that only goes as far as the warning track is not, as you'll recall, a home run. It's usually an out, a double at best. The GOP should be chastened by the conservatives' successful shunt of the local GOP candidate in NY-23 to the advantage of the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. But Hoffman ultimately lost to the Democrat -- losing a seat that had been a GOP seat for over a hunnert years. The seat is a loss, and hewing to the Conservative Party candidate wasn't enough to keep it out of the Democrats' hands. So going from here, what should the GOP do -- align itself more tightly with its most conservative elements and risk losing more seats? Or moderate its course and pick up more independents? Personally I think they'll wither on the vine if their agenda continues to be driven by the staunch conservatives. There's a lot in the GOP platform which they could fairly stand up for, such as fiscal conservatisism. But to risk it further by ceding to the wishes of deep thinkers like Palin and Pataki (I don't know Pawlenty very well) seems crazy. Palin is driven far more by social conservatism than financial conservatism, and Pataki was one of Bush's big cheerleaders for the Iraq-9/11 connection. If I were running for office I'd want them in a different neighborhood. Midterm elections typically reverse the momentum of what last happened in elections: and with the Democrats taking the majorities in the Congress in 2006, as well as the White House and firmer majorities in 2008, there was bound to be some blowback -- even if local issues play a role, such as in NJ. The GOP and the Conservative Party probably made a tactical mistake by inflating the importance of NY23, but they did, and now they both have egg on their face. What I most fear is that the Palins, Pawlentys, and Patakis still feel energized by the withdrawal of the GOP candidate and their strong showing. But they don't recognize that the ball was caught on the warning track, and they're off-message. They probably feel the appropriate response isn't to reformulate their arguments but to argue louder. UPDATE: For an example of the mind set of the wing nuts, look to RedState's Eric Erickson: "we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate." Actually keeping the seat our of the hands of the Democrats was not part of the plan.
Nativism, racism, call it whatever you like. The men's winner of the New York Marathon has lived in the USA for 22 years. That's not long enough to merit being called an American? He's an American. So what if he wasn't born here? How far do creepos want to take this? I mean, how many of the New York Yankees were born in New York?
Campbell Brown, and "Bull." I needed Wikipedia to confirm, but Campbell Brown's CNN show no longer carries the subtitle "No Bias, No Bull." Probably a good decision.
Local candidates shouldn't be up to the locals? On the exit of the GOP candidate in upstate NY, Red State's Eric Erickson wants a purge:
The problem? The GOP candidate was chosen not by the national party leaders but by the local GOP leaders. So Erickson is saying that either the RNC should have not contributed to the campaign (in a year when there are few elections — remember, this is a special election) and allowed the Democrats to outspend the GOP by a wide margin, or, force their own candidate on the local GOP leaders. Erickson thinks he's asking for a purge and rethink on the part of the national leaders, but that doesn't do squat. He cannot really believe that a purge in the national headquarters will have efficacy. No, he wants the local party leaders to lose control. I can understand his frustration... If a stealth creationist candidate got a Democratic nomination here in NYC there would be cause for alarm, too. But in my example I'm not talking about a moderate, I'm talking about a deceptive radical conservative. The GOP candidate is a moderate, unacceptable to the Right wing. And so Erickson and Palin and Pawlenty want to impose their views and reject a moderate. My take is that the local GOP knows what happened to buggywhips and wants to change with the times. Too mnay outsiders don't.
|
|
